Key Insights
- DOGE price broke out of a downward channel and now trades above the $0.1750 resistance.
- Whale moved 100M DOGE to private wallet, suggesting long-term bullish positioning.
- RSI divergence and higher lows suggest DOGE might revisit $0.50 in the coming weeks.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price has shown signs of recovery following a week of selling pressure and market uncertainty. After slipping below the $0.1750 support zone earlier in May, the meme coin price rebounded sharply over the weekend.
Analysts and on-chain indicators are beginning to signal the formation of a local bottom and the possibility of a strong bullish reversal.
Dogecoin Price Breaks Downtrend Channel and Retests $0.1750
On the hourly chart, DOGE price broke out of a defined descending channel, ending a short-term bearish trend that had weighed on prices for several days.
The breakout occurred near $0.1720, a level marked by heavy intraday resistance. Following the breakout, Dogecoin price rallied past the $0.1750 level and now consolidates just above that zone.
This breakout pattern was first identified by Trader Tardigrade, who pointed to the bullish structure on the one-hour timeframe. The move marked the first technical signal of strength for DOGE since its rejection from $0.182 in late April.
Source: Trader Tardigrade, X
According to current support levels, $0.1685 and $0.16 50 remain key downside zones to watch. Meanwhile, overhead resistance lies at $0.1780, $0.1850, and the $0.20 psychological level. If these levels are cleared, analysts suggest a mid-term path could form toward $0.50 and beyond.
Long-Term Analysts Point to Structural Bottom Formation on Dogecoin Price
Additional bullish signals have emerged from long-term chart watchers. According to the Investments CEO, the DOGE/USDT weekly chart showeda clear higher low and a trendline retest. The analyst shared a chart indicating a projected breakout that may extend as high as $1.16 in the next major leg up, should the current setup hold.
Source: CEO, X
Echoing this view, pseudonymous analyst Astronomer noted that DOGE price may have already bottomed after establishing support near $0.165. Drawing comparisons to October 2024, when Dogecoin price rallied over 500%, the analyst highlighted a similar structure forming now. The thesis is based on high time-frame market cycles, with altcoins typically finding their lows shortly after Bitcoin does.
Source: Astronomer, X
Astronomer added that spot holdings and defined risk zones near current levels make DOGE price an attractive asymmetric opportunity. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 2-day chart is also showing a mild bullish divergence, which often precedes trend reversals in such macro structures.
Whale Activity Sparks Accumulation Speculation
Recent on-chain data further supports the possibility of renewed accumulation. A large transaction involving 100 million DOGE, worth approximately $17.5 million, was moved to a private wallet earlier this week. This transfer coincided with increased exchange outflows, often interpreted as a bullish signal when coins are moved off platforms for long-term storage.
While some wallet groups continue to show distribution patterns, particularly those holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE, wallets with larger holdings have reversed their behavior. Wallets with between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE resumed net buying since April 8th.
The number of active addresses in the system has not increased a lot recently. Daily activity matches only 3.4% of the high mark from November 2023. The slow retail buying activity shows the retail market still faces challenges, while larger investors drive these latest price increases.
Metrics Show Divergence Between Cap and Realized Value
Between early April and May 6, Dogecoin’s market capitalization rose from $21 billion to $26.4 billion. But the realized cap, which measures coins’ value according to their last move price, fell slightly from $21.5 billion to $21.3 billion.
In particular, this divergence implies a portion of the recent increase of price is driven by speculative trades rather than by strong on-chain fundamentals. The rally is being held by conviction holders rather than widespread retail demand, as long-term holders have not significantly increased selling activity.
According to technical analysts, a strong breakout will only happen when DOGE price stays above $0.1850 and reaches $0.20 levels. A successful journey over $0.1850 would signal a path toward a technical retest of $0.28 to $0.30 and push the market towards $0.50 and $1.16 when all conditions turn bullish.
