Bitcoin nearing late stages of bear market: Jamie Coutts, Real Vision
Key Takeaways
- Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, told Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets that Bitcoin may be approaching the later stages of its current bear market, though he stressed it is not yet over.
- Coutts said Bitcoin, trading near $63,000, sits roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100, according to Cointelegraph.
- Coutts said he is comfortable projecting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 within the next two to three years, but called a $1 million price by 2030 premature to forecast, per Cointelegraph.
What Coutts Is Actually Saying About the Bear Market
According to Cointelegraph, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, used an appearance on the outlet’s Trade Secrets program to lay out his current read on Bitcoin’s market cycle. He described the recent price action as a fairly ordinary bear market, the kind the asset has been through before, rather than something structurally different or more alarming.
Bitcoin has been trading around $63,000, which Cointelegraph noted is about 50% down from the all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025. Coutts said the downside momentum, while still present, appears to be losing some of its force. He framed this as being closer to the second half of the bear phase than the beginning, while explicitly cautioning that the cycle is not finished.
Coutts pointed to a specific technical detail to support this view: Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with the prior market cycle, based on his comments to Cointelegraph. He suggested this decline in volatility could mean the present downturn ends up being milder than past bear markets, though he was careful not to treat this as a guarantee. He acknowledged that markets often behave unpredictably and don’t necessarily repeat prior patterns, adding that trend indicators at the moment remain bearish overall.
Still, Coutts said he is spotting early technical signs worth watching. He described seeing what he called a bullish divergence forming on longer-timeframe momentum charts, which in his interpretation shows that the pace of negative momentum is slowing down. He was explicit that this does not mean the bear market has technically ended, only that the intensity of the downward pressure may be easing.
Why the Cause of the Downturn and the Longer-Term Forecasts Matter
Coutts also addressed why the fourth-quarter decline happened in the first place. While many in the market have pointed to tightening global liquidity conditions as the main driver, Coutts said that weakening onchain fundamentals also contributed meaningfully to the downturn, according to Cointelegraph. This matters for everyday holders because it suggests the sell-off wasn’t driven purely by macro forces outside crypto’s control, but also by shifts in network-level activity and usage that are specific to Bitcoin itself.
On the question of long-range price targets, Coutts was measured. Cointelegraph reported that he was asked directly about forecasts from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood suggesting Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030. Coutts said the models he has worked with placed a $1 million valuation closer to 2032 or 2033, and that reaching such a level would largely depend on how much monetary expansion, or money printing, occurs between now and then.
Instead, Coutts said he is more comfortable putting forward a nearer-term estimate: Bitcoin reaching $200,000 to $250,000 within the next two to three years, per his comments to Cointelegraph. Beyond that window, he said it becomes very difficult to make confident predictions. He also raised a less conventional variable for future demand — the possibility that AI agents, as more digital wallets are created for them, could end up making their own decisions about where to store value, and whether they would follow patterns similar to human investors.
For everyday crypto users, this combination of near-term optimism and long-term humility is a useful signal. It suggests that even analysts who see recovery potential in the current cycle are not treating seven-figure Bitcoin prices as an imminent or assured outcome, and are instead tying such outcomes to broader monetary conditions that remain uncertain.
The Quantum Computing Question
Coutts also flagged a longer-term structural risk unrelated to price cycles: quantum computing. He told Cointelegraph that the Bitcoin community will need to take more decisive steps by 2027 to address the potential threat quantum computing could pose to the network. He was direct in his assessment of developers who downplay the issue, saying those who dismiss quantum computing concerns are on the wrong side of the debate, as reported by Cointelegraph. This is a separate concern from short-term price movement, but it speaks to the kind of technical governance questions that could shape Bitcoin’s security assumptions over the coming years.
Hype Check
Claim: Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030 and is already showing signs the bear market is ending. Reality: Coutts told Cointelegraph that a $1 million valuation is far too early to call for 2030, with his own models pointing closer to 2032-2033 and depending heavily on future monetary conditions; his nearer-term view is a $200,000 to $250,000 range over two to three years, alongside cautious technical signs that negative momentum is decelerating rather than confirmation the bear market has ended. Verdict: Mixed. This is not financial advice.
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Source
Researched with AI assistance, fact-checked and edited by a human. Not financial advice.