Which is More Likely to Fill First?

Bitcoin currently faces two futures CME gaps on the lower timeframe, with both presenting bullish and bearish implications.

Pseudonymous crypto analyst and trader BitBull first called attention to this current market position in a recent analysis amid the current Bitcoin (BTC) pullback. For context, since soaring to a two-month peak above $98,000 on May 2, BTC has witnessed turbulence.

Bitcoin Faces Two CME Gaps

As the ongoing correction persists, BitBull confirmed that Bitcoin now has two CME gaps it has not yet fulfilled, and these gaps could provide some insight into where the crypto firstborn would head next.

For the uninitiated, CME gaps occur because the CME futures market closes on weekends and holds breaks at specific times, while Bitcoin trades nonstop. If Bitcoin’s price gains or loses massively over the weekend or during the intraday break, a large price difference, or gap, can show up on the chart when CME trading resumes.

Particularly, of the latest duo, the first CME gap occurred on Tuesday, April 22, during which Bitcoin closed one 2-hour candle at $91,415 and opened a new one at $93,915, presenting an over $2,000 gap.

Meanwhile, the second CME gap occurred more recently. Notably, this gap materialized during the ongoing recovery push on Friday, May 2, when Bitcoin closed a 2-hour candlestick at $97,680 and opened a new one at $96,455.

Now, with Bitcoin changing hands around $94,775 in its quest to reclaim the $95,000 mark, the first CME gap between $91,415 and $93,915 rests below its current market position, while the second CME gap between $96,455 and $97,680 lies above the current position.

Which CME Gap Will Bitcoin Likely Fill First?

Notably, CME gaps can often affect Bitcoin price movement since many traders anticipate the price will return to fill the gap. This common belief typically drives market behavior, making it more likely for these gaps to fill, as traders position themselves for such moves.

Amid the formation of two gaps, it remains unclear which one BTC will fill first. According to BitBull, due to the current price correction, it is more likely that the market may attempt to push BTC toward filling the bearish gap. This indicates that if the pullback persists, BTC could drop to the $93,015 to $91,415 range.

However, she suggested that this price drop could help the bulls build the necessary strength for a reversal. According to her, such a strong reversal could lead to a rally above $100K. Investment analyst Tuna Kaya also believes $100K would mark Bitcoin’s next target especially if it recovers from a region he believes marks the lower band of an ascending channel.

Nonetheless, it is important to note that some CME gaps never get filled. As a result, BitBull’s forecast remains uncertain at press time. Meanwhile, another analyst, Paxton, suggests Bitcoin has formed a cup-and-handle pattern on the 1-week chart. Following the pullback to retest the handle breakout, he believes an upsurge is now likely.

$BTC has formed a Cup and Handle pattern on the weekly chart, followed by a pullback.

A rally now looks likely. pic.twitter.com/8M1GatMD6i

— Paxton (@Buy_SomeBTC) May 6, 2025